Market Recap
Gold prices hovered near the $4,000 per ounce mark on Monday, showing little movement as traders adopted a cautious stance ahead of key US economic releases, including ADP employment data and ISM PMI figures later this week. Meanwhile, oil prices remained stable around $61 per barrel, as the short-term pressure from the latest OPEC+ output hike was offset by the group’s plan to pause production increases in early 2026.
Gold
Spot gold traded near $3,995/oz, while US December gold futures edged slightly higher to $4,014/oz. The market remains in a holding pattern, with traders looking for clues about the Fed’s next policy move.
Analysts noted that after a 53% rally this year, gold is entering a consolidation phase, a natural cooldown following a sharp rise. Saxo Bank’s commodity strategist said the current stagnation looks more like “a pause than a collapse,” suggesting the broader bullish trend remains intact despite short-term seasonal weakness and a stronger dollar.
Gold Technical outlook:
Gold opened lower near $3,963, rebounded to $4,028, then drifted back to the $4,000 zone. Price action indicates indecision, with sideways movement narrowing within a tight range. Hourly charts show limited momentum and rising uncertainty, signaling possible volatility ahead of the upcoming data releases.
Today’s Gold focus:
Trading is expected to remain range-bound.
- Resistance: $4,030–$4,050
- Support: $3,960–$3,940
Oil
Crude prices ended slightly higher on Monday amid a fragile equilibrium between OPEC+’s near-term output increase and its long-term pause in production.
Brent crude rose 0.2% to $64.89, while WTI gained 0.1% to $61.05.
Morgan Stanley revised its 2026 Brent forecast up from $57.50 to $60, citing the OPEC+ production freeze as a key stabilizing factor. Still, weak Asian manufacturing data and a stronger US dollar, now at a three-month high, limited the upside by raising import costs for oil buyers.
Technical outlook:
Daily charts show oil recovering from recent lows near $56, with three consecutive bullish candles. The trend has shifted from bearish to neutral, while hourly momentum points slightly upward. The MACD shows strong buying pressure, suggesting that short-term strength could persist.
Today’s focus:
Oil is expected to extend its short-term recovery.
- Resistance: $62.5–$63.5
- Support: $59.5–$58.5
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